I know you've been receiving a lot of emails from us over the past couple of weeks, but with the situation in Ukraine growing more volatile, I wanted to reach out with further updates. We typically tweak our investment models on a quarterly basis, but we have made recent changes in response to the ongoing economic impacts of a war in Eastern Europe. In our view, the war itself as well as the sanctions enacted in response could continue to impact the broader European economy, global inflation, and energy prices.

We have endured so much over the last two years that we wanted to send a shorter letter than usual this quarter to simply say: thank you.

For sticking with us through Zoom meetings. For sticking to the plan when the market looks scary. For sharing your triumphs and losses with us during one of the toughest times the world has ever faced.

We are so grateful that each year since we founded Horst & Graben, over 99% of you have continued to work with us each year.

The second and third quarter were the best quarters for the stock market since 2009, and the significant actions of the CARES Act and the Federal Reserve’s stimulus have helped to keep this performance going. At this point, we believe economic activity is running ahead of expectations in developed countries, but at different paces depending on the virus activity and stimulus packages. We are also starting to see signs of a two-track recovery emerging, wherein some workers, companies, and regions show signs of growing stronger and others are in deep decline.

We hope our note finds you doing well. As we are now in our sixth month of “COVID craziness,” we thought it would be a good time to reach out. It has been a busy summer at Horst & Graben. Last week, we said goodbye to our two summer interns. Elizabeth is on her way back to Gonzaga and Elaina is on her way back to SMU. We appreciate their efforts and will miss them.

We hope you and yours continue to be healthy as we edge into fall. We want to send particularly good thoughts to our educators, who are working to get up to speed on the plan for this school year alongside the parents of their students!

PERS has provided some information on a couple of the recent changes we discussed in our last newsletter, with additional details to follow.

In advance of quarterly performance reports that will be coming out next week, we wanted to include an update on market performance so far this year. Since the bottom of the US stock market on March 23rd, it has been tempting to either ignore the markets entirely or spend far too much time checking performance. However, the majority of the major indices (like the S&P 500 and the DOW) have mostly recouped their earlier losses.

After a barrage of newsletters in late March and early April, we thought we would give you a reprieve for a little while, but we wanted to touch base again to give you our thoughts on what we are seeing in the markets lately.

While we have been primarily focusing on the impacts of COVID-19 in recent newsletters, we wanted to reach out with some updates, reminders and thoughts about PERS.

With the first quarter behind us, we customarily send out a quarterly letter to provide an update on the markets and your portfolios along with our quarterly reports. However, with all of the uncertainty and volatility, we have made it a point to reach out much more often over the past few weeks. With that said, we will give you just a brief update and highlight some notes of positivity we have seen recently.

Note: This is the final installment in our newsletter series covering the many programs affected by the CARES Act. We previously covered benefits for self-employed workers and small business owners, and later sent out information regarding student loans. We want to thank you again for the great feedback we’ve received, and invite you to share this information with others who may find it helpful.

Note: Our email from late last week focused on the most general aspects of the CARES Act. Earlier this week, we sent out a letter focusing on small business owners, self-employed workers, and independent contractors (1099s). We will also be sending out information for Medicare recipients and folks who, by age or inheritance, are subject to RMDs (Required Minimum Distributions).

Note: Our email from late last week focused on the most general aspects of the CARES Act. This week, we take a deeper dive into three affected groups to help them determine what benefits are out there. Today’s newsletter focuses on small business owners, self-employed workers, and independent contractors (1099s). Of other newsletters coming this week, one will focus on Federal student loan holders and their co-signors, and the other will address Medicare recipients and folks who by age or inheritance have RMDs (required minimum distributions).

A note from us: This newsletter is one of the longest we have ever sent out, but it is packed with important information that directly relates to each one of you. Please take the time to review it when you can, feel free to forward it to people who might benefit from this information, and we look forward to answering any clarifying questions we can from you or your loved ones.

Of all the situations that can trigger a crisis in the market, few are as personal as this one. The past month has felt much longer, and the day-to-day volatility we have experienced has been erratic and nerve-wracking, and perhaps reflects the uncertainty we feel in our own lives, as most of us are now experiencing widespread changes to our daily routines and concern for the health of our loved ones. Our economy is threatened by the prospect of a prolonged slowdown in manufacturing and consumption due to the social distancing required to combat the coronavirus, as well as a strong impact on transportation, dining, and “luxury” goods. Our lack of specific knowledge of how long it will last and how deeply it will hit has caused the markets to act on a worst-case scenario.